In September, the domestic sales growth rate of excavators further increased, while exports maintained positive growth. According to the Construction Machinery Industry Association, (1) Excavators: In September 2024, 15831 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. Among them, the domestic sales volume was 7610 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; The export volume was 8221 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.51%. At present, the monetary and fiscal policies are favorable for infrastructure construction, and the policy orientation of "stopping the decline and stabilizing the real estate market" is expected to boost domestic demand recovery. Main products represented by Zhongda Mining may benefit first. In addition, the total number of hydraulic excavators in 2023 is 1.91-20.69 million units, and the total number of excavators of all types for 8 years is about 1.7 million units. The previous boom cycle began in 2016, and the excavator replacement cycle is generally 7-8 years. Correspondingly, by 2024, it will gradually enter a new round of replacement cycle. At the press conference of the State Council Information Office on October 12th, the Ministry of Finance stated that it plans to maintain the intensity of fiscal expenditures and further increase the stimulus intensity of equipment renewal related policies compared to July. We believe that the construction machinery sector is expected to benefit from increased fiscal spending and experience accelerated demand for updates. (2) Loader: In September 2024, 8072 loaders of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 4.98%. Among them, the domestic sales volume was 4022 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.07%; The export volume was 4050 units, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, maintaining a high range. In September, 937 electric loaders were sold, with a monthly electrification rate of 12%. The cumulative electrification rate from January to September was about 10%, which was basically the same as August.
Startup rate: The domestic market continues to recover, while overseas markets continue to differentiate. According to the official website of Komatsu, in September 2024, the operating hours of Chinese Komatsu excavators were 95.3 hours, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a month on month growth rate of+3.9 pct. Overseas, Europe, and Indonesia saw a year-on-year increase in the operating hours of Komatsu excavators, while Japan and North America experienced a certain decline compared to the same period last year, with North America experiencing a year-on-year growth rate decline of over 5% for two consecutive months. In September, the operating hours of Komatsu excavators in North America, Europe, Japan, and Indonesia were 65.4 hours/74.3 hours/46.5 hours/216.5 hours, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.3%/+0.8%/-0.4%/+2.6%, respectively.